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NFL 2010-11...and 12.

14,863 posts in this topic

-Dan Snyder is the fucking worst guy in sports alongside James Dolan. What dunces. Their teams always suck too.
-the 49ers NOT getting Kirk Cousins is not a bad thing at all. You got no talent, I'd rather just suck and get the #1 pick in 2018 and get Sam Darnold....I see mock drafts having them select Jamal Adams (safest pick AND John Lynch was a safety), Leonard Fournette, or Solomon Thomas (Stanford like Lynch)...but I'd probably just trade down. It sonds like Jonathan Allen is REALLY going to slide.
-I was definitely naive/hopeful with ANY backup QB the Pats have had once Matt Cassel was worth a high 2nd round pick (he's somehow still a starting QB at times...and so, too, is Hoyer). But Jimmy is definitely the best of them all and he was picked the highest.

The #12 pick for Jimmy is defensible when you have ALL the assets they have.

It's more defensible than...
-Texans paying Brock Osweiler without meeting with him when he was benched for Peyton Manning...and then having to trade out a 2nd round pick just to get rid of him after 1 season
-Vikings giving up a 1st and a 4th for Sam Bradford while also paying him $20M per season...all while knowing you're most likely not going to make the playoffs with him. I doubt the Vikings will make the playoffs with him. I won't rehash this fight, but he doesn't move the needle and he is what he is. You already know his ceiling and limitations.

With Jimmy?
-you're paying him cheap on a rookie deal for 1 year and you can extend/keep him beyond that and franchise him
-you finally built back up your offensive line after losing Alex Mack in free agency so he (or any other QB you want) will have the best shot at succeeding...and your WR's should be solid enough
-they have the #1 pick who seems like he's a cant miss superstar. Already having a 1st round pick, in a way, makes dealing out the #12 pick easier to part with. And they have ALL the assets in the world over the next 2 seasons to take a loss if he does, in fact, suck. But it also looks like Jimmy is better/safer than any QB in this year's draft and the only guy ready to play Day One. And they can potentially get him BEFORE the draft and get him situated with the playbook/everything.
-he is an unknown, in ways, but his limited playing time he shined and showed he had a high ceiling.

Belichick is obviously driving up the price for Jimmy and saying they will only trade him for 2 1st rounders OR only the #1 pick in the draft. There's no fucking way and the Browns are not that dumb or desperate.
Same thing with the Pats-Saints with Butler-Cooks: both teams/coaches are friendly and they might just be trying to drive up value for what they can get from OTHER teams who are hearing the rumors. Otherwise, I don't get how or why that leaked out at all, particularly on the Pats' end. If it happens, it usually goes down fast and doesn't linger the way it has.

There are certain teams I don't want Jimmy to go to if he is legit or close to as good as I think he is...
Chiefs/Texans/Dolphins/Broncos/Giants (5-way tie), Jets/Bills (get out of division)

Overnight: Jimmy might just be a top 5 QB in the AFC in 2017...and Brady, Rivers, Roethlisberger are all on the way out or declining. So after those guys, it's just him, Carr, Luck, Mariota. And the Browns might actually have a better situation than Rivers, Luck, and Mariota's teams. At worst, he's Ryan Tannehill. And they would still have the assets to trade for Darnold in 2018.

Browns, either way, might be a year away. They either trade for Jimmy or they tank it again in 2017 and get Darnold. I don't see another option that I would do unless they somehow like Trubisky

But I think the Pats will be patient and not trade Jimmy until maybe closer to the draft. Or they'll fuck me over and hold onto him and then just franchise him.

Titans sign Logan Ryan to 3-year $30M deal
I kind of expected him to maybe get overpaid more, but that's not bad.

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A pick has the same value no matter how many other picks you have. That kind of thinking is how guys like Antoine Walker made in excess of $100 million in their career and his net worth is now less than 300k. You have to be judicious no matter how much you think you have, because if you're not then in reality you have nothing.

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I get that, but still...if you have a 1st, you want a definite impact player (Garrett), which they'll get...if they want a QB who can play Day 1, Jimmy is more likely that.

But, again, the Browns have collected ALL the assets I pointed out. Trading out the Texans' late 2nd round pick is easier to part with than other teams. It's a risk to take a chance on any QB to be your franchise player, Browns, right now, are in a decent position with FIVE 2nd round picks in the next 2 drafts. They upgraded their offensive line and this year's draft has barely any talent on the line, so they're good there.

They basically have three 1st round picks right now (#1, #12, #33) and then the #52, #57 (Texans), and #65...they can part with a 2nd round pick next year and still hit it big in this year's draft. 

If you're a GM or Head Coach, they have to make their hits. But they can afford to strike out on some of the picks and not be fucked over or take a setback (well, they can't get worse than being the worst, but still).

Sounds crazy, but I'd rather be in the position the Browns are in than most teams are.

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Kony Ealy and 3rd round pick to Pats for 2nd round pick

-Pats move down 8 spots to get Kony.
-was the shit in the 2015 playoffs, particularly the Super Bowl...but didn't break out in 2016
-Greg Bedard said he will be better 'standing up' in the Pats system.
-Chris Long/Sheard are gone...they address a need before the draft.
-Chris Long replacement: same size (6'4'' 270), 7 years younger

I still think they target TE, Edge, Safety, CB in the draft despite the addition + players they've kept so far.

Donta Hightower leaning between Titans (where he is from) and Pats
I don't know what he'll do. But if he leaves, Pats are fucked at the LB position and it would force them to get either Reuben Foster or Hassan Reddick with their first draft pick (and early). Either way, even if they re-sign Hightower, they need to address the LB position.

Terrelle Pryor to Washington on 1-year $8 mill deal

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Image result for ron swanson celebration gif

It was a thank you for ruining the Falcons in the most devastating way imaginable.

I'm LOVING the Pats urgency, for a change. I didn't expect THIS. Brady's going to be 40, so I wonder if they're going to keep Jimmy or not. We'll see how much they really like him, but they need more help (front-7 for sure; Blount replacement; Safety who could replace Chung in a year; TE for future)

It reminds me of the 2007 season where the Pats are REALLY going after it.
Pats tried trading to get DeAndre Hopkins for Jamie Collins last year as a shot in the dark, so this does make sense.

I like Edelman as much as any WR in the NFL. He's so dependable/key on 3rd downs when you need it, always game, killer in the punt game, blocking, everything. Love him + Welker. But he's going to be 31 years old and he's been held back in his career by foot injuries. Makes sense to get younger at WR and bring in a proven guy. 

Cooks: 78 receptions, 1173 yards (back to back seasons of 1100+ receiving yards)...and he's only 23 years old. He should eventually be Julian Edelman's replacement. Edelman, Hogan, Cooks: all can play inside/outside. He's VERY comparable to Deion Branch, who was once upon a time Brady's favorite WR.

They've had bad luck drafting WR's: they get a 2 month head start to get Cooks acclimated with the Pats. I LOVED Cooks before the 2014 draft (ridicullous WR class: Pats had no chance on Odell/Mike Evans/Watkins, so I settled hard on Cooks given how badly they fucked up in the 2013 draft)...Branch (2002 2nd), Edelman (2009 7th), and maybe Malcolm Mitchell (2016 4th) seem like their only hits in the draft. They fucked up with Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Taylor Price, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, etc

-Donta Hightower-losing him would be a major blow
-Malcolm Butler-seems like Pats could trade him and get a draft pick. I don't know what they do. Sounds like it will be hard to afford him.

Saints perspective
-Mike Thomas looks better and ahead of the curve even for a rookie. I think Payton/Brees could make it work with most guys. They already got a pretty damn good offensive line.
-but that defense has been a tire fire for years and it looks like they're finally going to address it. They're a rebuilding team so they lose in the short-term on this deal for sure. But doesn't sound like the Saints would have been able to afford Cooks. Or maybe even wanted to.
-Sounds like Cooks' teammates are super bummed/pissed to see him go, which is a good sign. Didn't seem like a dick in the locker room.

Glass half-empty
I'm really high on this draft and think it's the strongest in years (super weak on the offensive line, which sucks for contending teams like the Broncos, Seahawks, Panthers, Vikings: which forced most the teams mentioned to wildly overpay). Meanwhile, with limited options, Rams/Browns paid up for talent. 

Wish the Pats had some earlier picks. As it stands now, they don't pick until #72. That could change if something happens with Jimmy, Butler, or both. There's still a chance Butler could be headed to the Saints.

But I think Belichick wants to hit on impact players NOW while still feeling like the draft is deep and he'll get people in the mid rounds.

The funny thing is I follow the Pats' Draft Talk forum almost daily and avoid the main forum...and most the users are bummed because they spent so much time doing thoroguh evaluations (for real, some users do ridiculous breakdowns and devour every game they played in). But everybody's used to being bummed out by what Belichick does. He makes some amazing decisions, but man, when he makes shitty ones, it's shit on ASAP (a graveyard of 2nd round draft picks everybody hates).

Martellus Bennett=Packers
3 year deal $16M...huge bummer that he's only getting, like, $1.25M more a year. Dwayne Allen is younger, but loved having Bennett here and thought someone might offer $9-10M/year. Also sounds like his deal is year-to-year.

Jabaal Sheard=Colts
knew he would be gone for sure when he got benched when he was in a contract year.
Kind of frustrating to watch him in 2016: he missed SO many sacks, nearly got to the QB, gave up, or had the QB and the QB got away somehow. That happened every time.

Lawrence Guy=Pats (4 year $20M)
another DE. Wasn't on my radar nor am I familiar with him, really. Bounced around.
6'4'' 305, guess he's a good athlete for size.

I guess Pats valued him because of how good the Ravens' run D was: he + Brandon Williams (who the Ravens re-signed for 5 years $52.5M and 24M guaranteed; I wanted Williams badly in the draft he was in) were valuable and PFF rated them highly.

Pats just need to get a DE/OLB for pass rushing. But Pats never really have a real pass rush on D.

NFL DRAFT: Sidney Jones may have torn achilles at Washington's Pro Day
huge blow: expected to be a high 1st round pick, will instantly lose millions. Bummer.

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Week 17 altercation between BRock Osweiler + Bill O'Brien was last straw
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/03/12/week-17-altercation-was-last-straw-for-texans-and-osweiler/

Tom Savage being in concussion protocol hindered Osweiler coming back...they then win a playoff game with Brock, forcing them to play him again.

I remember in the AFC Divisional, Osweiler threw a bad INT (2nd or 3rd of the game) and it was near the goal line where the Texans were going in to score...and Osweiler, it looked like, was somehow pissed at the WR. Didn't totally look like frustration/disgust with himself.

TJ Lang chooses Lions over Seahawks/Packers
-Lions lose Reiff/Warford, but upgrade their positions.
-Seahawks are fu-ucked. I think, collectivey, their starting offensive line is making less than $8M.

Jets/Pats are fighting to sign Donta Hightower
other teams too.

Belichick's coaching tree: Alabama, Iowa, etc.

so with that said...I like the TE class and I like George Kittle: athletic, Dallas Clark-ish, probably best blocking TE, good value pick in the mid rounds

 

I don't think he would be a home run hit for a TE, but if you can block, Belichick will love the shit out of you.

Edited by Cassidy

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Pats sign the wrong Head, Rex Burkhead
-I wanted Woodhead back and thought he never should have left (Chargers did good with him and utilized him more, but got injured)
-Burkhead is said to be a good, underrated signing that will do better in the Pats' system
-versatile 3rd down pass-catchers are valuable
-4-down RB: special teams value means he probably replaces Brandon Bolden

advanced numbers back up
http://nesn.com/2017/03/rex-burkhead-brings-versatility-starting-potential-to-patriots-backfield/

-James White/Dion Lewis are in last year of deals: Pats tend to just let those 3rd down backs walk lately (Vereen; Woodhead)
-Legarrette Blount still a free agent: Career year in 2016 (299 carries,  1161 yards, 18 TD's, 3.9 yards per carry)...next best year was his rookie year in 2010...still, he will be 31 in December, so he's peaked and not going to get a favorable contract...love having him, but he's frustrating at times: not decisive at line-of-scrimmage...if he's in the game, it can limit the Pats: he's not a threat as a receiver, really, so it gives the defenses a tell...but: Pats don't have a punishing RB beside him and that's what they need to find in the draft (Samaje Perine? Kareem Hunt?)

Burkhead + Lawrence Guy weren't on ESPN's top 150 ranking, yet Guy made 4 years $20M somehow.

Malcolm Butler visiting Saints, could be traded there and Pats get 32nd pick back

-if Butler walks after 2017, Pats get a 3rd round comp back
-...most likely, they get the 1st round back (not the Saints' 11th, that would be fucking ridiculous)

I'd love to keep Butler, but supposedly Pats told Butler + his agent $10M/year was too much for him...then they sign Gilmore for $16M/year, which is fucking ridiculous.
Butler/Gilmore are top 10 corners, but not top 3-5-ish.
Gilmore could be more versatile in the Pats' system and has more length...but...Butler played his ass off (great tackler; played hard every down; the Super Bowl catch). You don't pay for past performance, but he's the same age as Gilmore basically.

but here's what the Pats just did or might be doing: they get a 2-for-1 deal: they get Gilmore to replace Butler and they potentially get a 1st round talent to replaceh im.
It's pretty ice cold since I never figured the Pats would look to sign a CB to replace Butler...or that Butler would turn down $16M/year; that's hard to imagine. But it also says that the Pats chose to sign the guy who said 'yes'.

Hightower:
-Jets may have offered the most (threw a birthday party w/ cupcakes for him...this would be the worst team to go to. But playing behind their D-Line would be enticing.
-Steelers are holding him today and they told him if he gets on the plane without signing, the deal is off the table
-Titans: he's from Tennessee
-Pats: seem to be the best fit

If Pats get near the top 10 somehow
I would LOVE Malik Hooker or Jamal Adams. Belichick LOVES safeties and there was a quote somewhere that he firmly believed that if you had a great safety, you can control/dictate everything. It's a pretty deep/great draft for safeties, so I imagine Belichick might share that and just settle for later. I can see Hooker or Adams going #2 to the 49ers, Solomon Thomas won't fall past the Jaguars at #4, Jonathan Allen falls, possibly Reuben Foster/Hassaan Reddick. I figure there will be an early run on CB's in the 1st.

Some people on the Pats fan forum believe if the Pats got the #1 pick, Belichick would then just trade down multiple times...but he would prefer a guy like Jamal Adams over Garrett (the former? Sure. The latter? I find that to be crazy and people trying too hard to think what would Belichick do)

Either way, Browns aren't giving up the #1, Bears are tanking again to get a QB in the 2018 draft after overpaying Mike fucking Glennon.

anyways
-even if Hightower re-signs, they still need a LB
-if Butler is traded, they would need to get a CB to replace him
-they still do eventually need a younger TE...and should consider putting Gronk on PUP and just save him for the playoffs and just use him in Red Zone/Goal Line situations

I'd like the Pats to get the 32nd pick back and the #12 (and one of the Browns 2nd round picks).
I'd like to double-dip on defense (LB/CB/Safety) in the 1st and then RB/TE in the 2nd or 3rd...if Sidney Jones, the Washington CB who will be out for the year with the Achilles, falls to 72, select/redshirt him. He should fall big time, but I don't think he will fall that far.

Vikings sign Datone Jones

Robert Mays on DeMarcus Ware
https://theringer.com/nfl-demarcus-ware-retires-dallas-cowboys-denver-broncos-hall-of-fame-a3a02fa63952#.na3ry0kou

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Hightower is back!!! Most important move of the Pats' offseason
4 years $43M, $19M guaranteed
Goddamn, that's all he got?!? I think Chandler Jones/Jamie Collins somehow made more (Collins: 4 years $50M, $26M guaranteed). Guess that's the market value. And not too many teams could use him (injury history but he plays through; he's heavy for a LB at 275 but he's versatile/can play all over)

Looks like he will be the only 1 of the core 4 players to be re-signed (Butler, Collins, Jones): pretty shocking since I thought 2-3 would be re-signed, but only 1?! And they're still completely fine? Amazing.

Trey Flowers looks like he might be the next guy to be re-signed. We'll see.

Hightower sets himself up to be an all-time Patriot great by staying longer. Him + Tedy Bruschi are two #54's who look like they're going to be Patriot Hall of Famers.
Made the game-changing strip sack in SB51. Saved Marshawn Lynch from going into the end zone on play before Butler's INT (Hightower was playing through a torn labrum, I think, and a harness on his shoulder: basically got Marshawn f'n Lynch down with 1 shoulder)

Julius Peppers signs 1-year deal to return to Panthers

Cool to see him go home. Packer fans must be bummed, but he's probably going to retire after this coming year.

Rex Burkhead is making about the same as Peppers will (1 year $3.15M, $1.8M base salary, $1.1M signing bonus, $250K in per-game roster bonuses)

Judge dismisses all charges in Revis case
Sounds like he was set up by people who just wanted to get into it with him.

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10 hours ago, Cassidy said:

Julius Peppers signs 1-year deal to return to Panthers

Cool to see him go home. Packer fans must be bummed, but he's probably going to retire after this coming year.

God I'm fucking old.  

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saw this on the Pats fan forum via a Seahawks draft blog that's supposed to be good

http://seahawksdraftblog.com/t-j-watt-and-tyus-bowser-are-pretty-special

^TJ Watt and Tyus Bowser are special athletes: in the realm of Khalil Mack
Jordan Willis looks like he might be up there.
I already liked Bowser, but Watt is now on my radar if the Pats do trade Butler/Jimmy. 

TJ is more like Clay Matthews than JJ. Might not be his brother, but there's something special there. 

Gareon Conley (CB) and Tyus Bowser/TJ Watt/Jordan Willis are favorite targets if the Pats get 1st & 2nd round round picks. I don't know what's going to happen. More it goes on, I don't like the idea of giving up Jimmy/Butler, but it's a $ issue. If Brady stays, you can't pay a backup $20M+ per year (and Belichick WOULD take the guy who can play 10+ years over a 40-year old QB who has 2-3 years left) and Butler would command $10-$15M/year.

I think people on the Pats fan forum draft board were looking at TJ Watt at 32 and thinking he could potentially be a solid Ninkovich replacement on down the line.

^posting this mainly for DK, but people on the Pats board LOVE Mack Hollins as a core special teams guy in the late rounds.
The downside though is I think he has arthritis. 

Pats might also be favorites to get Darrelle Revis and just put him in at slot CB. They said his tape isn't as horrible as it looks, but he just simply and obviously cannot cover #1 WR's because he'll give up 40+ yard plays. Would be funny to see him play for the Pats while he's getting paid by the Jets.

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Michael Lombardi KILLED Jabril Peppers on the Ringer's GM Street podcast yesterday. Made a convincing case. Yeah, not good. Should be interesting to see where he goes. But doesn't view him as even close to a 1st round pick.

Even Albert Breer was pointing out he's the 5th or 6th best player on Michigan's D (Taco, Wormley, Jourdan Lewis, Delano Hill, etc)

Both pointed out that he's probably better on offense because his best skill is being a returner or with the ball in his hands.

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